Between the firing lines of South Asia
During the last couple of months, the Indo-Pak conflict reached the flush point. But is that only Narinder Modi’s election strategy that brought up this conflict at that stage? or there is some international great game behind it too. Importantly, the biggest question is that if that conflict prolongs for a long time how it could offend the region?
The situation leads that, certainty Narinder Modi put India in the crucial path of the end game.
The Front Liner
Since the 70s and 80s, the global power politics placed Pakistan in the position of a front liner in the global conflicts.
- The 1st Afghan war – Against USSR
- The 2nd Afghan war – The American invasion
- The escalation of the multipolar world – The Sino-Russian strategy of Belt, Road, and Great Eurasia
- South Asia with the Middle East that leads to Europe, vice versa the Middle East to the shores of East Asia
- South Asia with Central Asia that leads to Russia
- China and Russia to the Indian Ocean
- Especially China to the Middle East that leads to Africa
That is the reason Pakistan is in the conflict zone for a long time as a front liner.
The Game of Choice
If you could not avoid it ... you should play it.
Since 2001 Pakistan was in the unwanted partnership of 2nd Afghan war, which brought up flames at its western border, it is not only blazed Afghanistan but offended Pakistan with horrific terror attacks that swallowed thousands of citizen. The situation provides Indians the opportunity to sponsor the proxy war from the western border of Pakistan and also the long-running border tension at the eastern border in the last term of Atal Bihari Vajpayee that pushed Pakistan at the dangerous corner for survival. At the same time, the other regional countries also sensed the heat of “The New World Order” and the American invasion in Afghanistan, that drove them to form Shanghai Corporation Organization (SCO). The basic objective of SCO was to build a regional corporation for the economy, trade, and transportation but it is also had an agenda to safeguard regional peace, security, and stability. That was the initiation of a Sino-Russian block. The anxious Pakistani establishment found the way out.
Foe to Friend
That was the time when Russia and Pakistan started a new relationship as a friend in their natural interests and global political scenario, which unbolted opportunities for them, Russian old warm water deep sea port dream can become true with the strategy of OBOR – CPEC. This relationship was important because this strategic partnership ensures regional stability in the Middle East and Central Asia for Great Eurasia.
One Belt, One Road … and the Regional Stability
Sino-Pak Relationship began the opportunity of CPEC that was a part of OBOR (One Belt One Road), a global strategy to promote economy, trade and assure regional stability. China needed to develop western China because it linked it to Central Asia and Russia. China also needed a shortest and safe passage to the oil-rich Middle East, the source of energy for its industries and production. Pakistan as a long time trustworthy friend resolved that issue.
Pakistan needed to rebuild its 2nd generation defense machinery that was incapable of fighting a fifth-generation war and Chinese defense industry could help it in that time of need.
One and a half-year back in my post I briefly analyze the Middle East crisis and how GCC countries have chosen to take regional security and control in their own hands that brought a new role of Pakistan in Islamic Military Counter Terrorism Collision (IMCTC).
Pakistan The Situation and The Position
Now Pakistan overcomes the crisis that it faced in the war against terrorism. This the only country in the world that faced the most dangerous level of terrorism and fifth-generation war fair. This hard circumstance converted its old military machinery to the modern age of war machinery. If we technically analyze Pakistan have war machinery, which is developed with the Western, Chinese and home-grown technologies that covered up the complete range of defense including satellite, early warning systems and drowns surveillance system. The small but well-equipped Airforce. The army with modern artillery, tanks and mechanize division, the small and capable Naval force. All these forces and their equipment are integrated with home-develop datalink system with each other and with central headquarter. The slight demonstration of that integrated war machinery we saw in the recent Indian Pakistan conflict.
Pakistan with all this capability is working with the IMCTC countries, the modern Saudi and UAE armed forces to assure regional stability and taking the control of regional security in the critical strategist region of the world that includes the Arabian Sea and the Red Sea, the passage of world busiest trade route. In this strategy, Pakistan has the support of Sino-Russia, because it extends the OBOR and multipolar strategy by securing the route of OBOR to Africa with stabilizing the region.
After 18 years of war in Afghanistan, this year American encountered some big attack in Afghanistan that not only causes American big material loses but the big number of casualties too. Taliban at the one side in the dialog with Americans and at the other end they are tightening their gauges around them. That frightened the Americans, they need to faster the dialog process in Afghanistan and get a way out.
In Syria, American going for a complete withdrawal. During the past year, the only American gain in Syria is just a "Lease of Golan Heights" for Israel that can only assure an opportunity for Netanyahu to win the election but cannot change the status of Golan Heights, a fact that Netanyahu understands better. Israel is in worry because they are in a most difficult position, after Bashar back in control in Syria. Israel also concerned about Hezbollah and Iranian presence near Golan Heights. Moreover, the progress of IMCTC in the region also worrying Israel. That is the reason we saw the Israeli joins hand with India in the current Indo-Pak conflict.
India … At the Wrong Side
Although Indian could avoid this conflicted situation with Pakistan, unfortunately, the weak political position of Narinder Modi in running Indian election took them to trigger it, Israel and a western country who is eager to sale some fighters to India provided technical support. This conflict might be converted into a war if Pakistan did not play its strategy well.
The million-dollar question is that, does India standing at the right side of the global interest? And is that secure any benefit for Indian in this global game?
If we review since the formation of SCO the Russian and China were always keen to bring India into the SCO and when they provided the full membership to Pakistan, at the same time they also provided the full membership to India, because they wanted that India should be part of the new strategy of the multipolar world. Maintain a better relationship with Pakistan and to be a part of OBOR, that not only open the route of Central Asia and Russia toward India but also open the door of Central Asia and Russia for India. It also opens the Indian route toward Turkey and Europe.
During Manmohan era, India tried to maintain the balancing act in its role between all these strategies, but when Modi arrived, he ruined all of it. Modi once again chosen the way of Vajpayee and escalate the conflict with Pakistan and positioned the other side of the game to accomplish the rightest political ideology of RSS and Bajrang Dal. That obscure the fate of not only the region but also India.
Although, there are many chances of Congress to come into the government in India and Rahul is looking like a promising leader, but this is too difficult for Congress to handle the worst internal situation of the country. This can be possible the strong rightist block will back into the government in the next election even they lose it for now.
This situation made the South Asian horizon flashy. India should understand that the conflict in the region is not in the favor of the multipolar world and regional stability and an encounter with Pakistan will be a direct strike on the interests of all countries, those are related with it. If India pulls the situation at the unavoidable position, then this time it may fit India at the Horns of bull.
Conclusion
There are many hopes with Congress party if they win the election they will understand the new possibilities in the region and joins the hands with regional stability as well as open the door of India for OBOR, and if BJP gets back to the power then this time they should avoid the military standoff with Pakistan. This is not 70s and 80s of the bipolar world, neither year of 2001 when Americans were declaring the world order, nor India in such position to hold their own block in the world. Their mantra of taking Pakistan apart from the world failed badly in the past five years and become a joke to laugh. So, stop this nonsense and open the eyes and look at a new horizon.
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