America and The Middle East: The Good, The Bad and The Ugly

US President Donald Trump

2017 the year of American dwindling role in geopolitics going to end with Trump’s move on Jerusalem to recognize it as Israel capital. The decision that could lead a big blow for American already declining sculpture in global politics.

Trump’s America: losing ground in Geopolitics

Before we see how Trump move on Jerusalem makes big blow in American geopolitical status, we take a short review that how Trump decisions on geopolitical issues almost place American global stature in coffin box.

1. Trump withdrawal from Trans-Pacific Partnership TPP.

Trump entrance into the White House had been started with a decision of withdrawal from Trans-Pacific Partnership TPP, which was a trade agreement between 11 Pacific countries to establish free trade between the region. That was not only trade agreement but also an American strategic tool to limit China in Pacific region. Chinese took advantage of that and convinced regional countries for Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership RCEP a trade agreement between 16 regional countries with Chinese convenient terms. That puts a big dent in US Pacific strategy.

2. NATO and European Nations growing distrust on Trump’s America.

NATO and European nations distrust on the US are growing with the pace of time. There was the time when NATO nations were united with Americans on Iraq and Afghan war against terrorism and actively participating with their troupes and now this is the time when American lonely trying to fight his survival war in Afghanistan, in a situation of Russia, China, Pakistan and Iran are opposing new Trump policy in Afghanistan. The US almost lost Iraq to Iranian influenced forces supported by Russia. American-NATO partner Turkey is in engagement with Russia and Iran to a final solution on Syria. American almost lost influence over Europe and NATO. 

3. The Middle East: failed American strategy.

This year American lost their role in middle east. Iraq and Syria are mostly in control of Iranian influenced forces, which is having the support of Russia. ISIS eliminated from Iraq and Syria. Qatar a American closed ally, where American have a big military base and US Central Command forward headquarter commonly known as CENTCOM had been isolated by GCC countries lead by Saudi Arab. GCC countries with Pakistan and their northern African partners formed their own combined force IMCTC as I discussed in my previous post, which is a symbol of distrust on foreign forces in the region.

Middle East current situation: a brief look

To understand the current situation, need a little brief look at middle east current and near past events. 

Although this is a common understanding that the isolation of Qatar is the useless attempt of GCC countries, which have not benefit for them. But what is actual reason, why they did it? Is there any significance to it?

To understand it we need to understand, what is the Qatar role in middle east which is commonly overlooked. Qatar is hosting not only big American base in middle east but also have forward Head Quarter of CENTCOM in Doha.

What is CENTCOM?

American are dividing world into different regions and to control these regions American established multiple commands in the world which are;

• US NORTHCOM
• US SOUTHCOM
• US EUCOM
• US CENTCOM
• US AFRICOM
• US PACOM

US NOTRTHCOM and US SOUTHCOM are having a responsibility in American continents, US EUCOM in Europe, US AFRICOM in Africa, US PACOM in Pacific region and UC CENTCOM is in middle east and central Asian region.

Following map shows the area of responsibility of CENTCOM.

                           

CENTCOM Area of responsibility

Since last 3 decays, the CENTCOM is the most active and operational command of US. That not only wars in controlled Iraq Afghanistan and Syria but also responsible to guard American interests in middle east and central Asian region.

Is Qatar a pious Priest or a clever Machiavelli?

This is an interesting circumstance that Qatar is not only hosting CENTCOM, Qatar also hosts offices and relationship with rebel organizations which are active in middle east, such as Jabhat al-Nusra(Syria), Ahrar al-Sham (Syria), Ansar al-Sharia (Libya) even with ISIS and such a kind of terror organizations. More interestingly Qatar also provides support and shelter the regional Islamic movements Hamas (Palestine) and Muslim Brotherhood (Egypt).

An important question is that how a country could Host CENTCOM headquarter and have close relationships with such kind of rebel or Islamist organizations and CENTCOM ignored it?  If we accept the fact that Qatar was supporting and having relationship with Jabhat al-Nusra and Ahrar al-Sham kind of organization because they were fighting against Bashar’s Syrian Army and Hezbollah in interest of American then what could be the reason of Qatari relationship with Hamas and Muslim Brotherhood which are the Islamist organizations and American supposed them rebels those are working to rise extreme Islamic ideology in middle east and especially Hamas, which is fighting against Israel occupation in Palestine?

The straight answer to question that could found in middle east circumstances in near past is that these Qatari relationships were in dear interest of American and CENTCOM, they used them to destabilize the middle east in interest of their long-term presence in the region, because an insecurity in region can assure a requirement of a force in region that can fight against this insecurity.

Qatari relationship with Hamas and Muslim Brotherhood was achieved two targets;

• Distance Hamas from its old allied Syria, Iran and Hezbollah (the famous strategy of divide and conquer).
• Control on Arab spring, which was leading by Muslim Brotherhood and used them to scare Arab rulers.

GCC moves to Isolate Qatar (Reckless or Intelligent)

Was GCC move to isolating Qatar a reckless decision or an intelligent one? To understand that this would be appropriate to take the overview of development in the region after that, which can explain itself.

1. Syrian opposition forces have been collapsed.
2. And interestingly ISIS have been collapsed in the whole region.
3. Shut all chances of Arab spring revival in the region.

What an interesting outcome of Qatari isolation in the middle east!! The advantage was going into the favor of Iran, Bashar and Hezbollah..., was that not because of Qatari isolation, that brought hurdles in the covered operations in the region. This is might be a reason behind reducing Iranian reservation on GCC influenced IMCTC (Islamic Military Counter Terrorism Coalition), due to that this time Iranian kept a strange silence over the summit of IMCTC, which was against its previous standing on IMCTC. Moreover, Pakistan silent mediation role between these historical rivalry countries could not be ignored too (Remember Pakistani COAS General Qamar Bajwa’s exceptional visit to Iran before IMCTC summit).

We are seeing the GCC countries interest over Syria has been falling after the change of Saudi King, they have been almost distanced themselves from this issue. Although we were seeing some Saudi official’s statements against Iran and Iranian official’s hot responses in recent past, but those were over Yemen issue. (I will also analyze in another blog the Yemeni solution in current circumstances when Iran is also silently disassociating itself from active involvement in Yemen, this is another topic).  

A New Saudi Arab after King Abdullah

The initiatives and moves of new Saudi rulers have been surprised most of the world, this is a reason there are so many gossips arising and we are hearing day after day for them. Here I am trying to understand what is the actual reality by analyzing development that made during these times.

1. Cold welcome of Obama by King Salman, the 1^st surprise that world experienced from Saudi Arabia was the Cold welcome of Obama, when he visited Saudi Arab to resolve issue of decreasing Oil price in world, Obama tried to convince King that they decrease the production of Oil to control the global Oil price but king surprisingly refused it.
2. Saudi deputy crown prince visited St. Petersburg and he was seeking a deal with Russia over Nuclear technology and oil.
3. Saudi prince visited China for new security and economic corporation. He signed new deals of 70 billion dollars.
4. The warm welcome of new US president with signing billion dollar deals, but that was actually just MoUs Memorandum of Understandings, which has no legal bindings, Trump falsely portrayed them as his achievement and deal.
5. But what Saudi got against it a swift isolation of Qatar, and Trump could not resist it because that was a surprising move of Saudi Arab and other GCC countries.
6. Saudi King visited Moscow this year and signed billion dollar Arms deal, which was actually a deal or a contract, not a MoU.
7. Formation of IMCTC a regional force to control regional security.  

All above development rivals Saudi Arab distrust on American and moves toward new alternative world partners Russia, China and now Saudi Arab is trying to control regional security along with regional collision partners.

Iran strategic win: an open path to Beirut

After 14 hundred years; now Iran is in historically best strategic position, having significant control over the area of old Persian Empire (Iraq and Syria with its fellow governments in both countries), which provides it an open route to Beirut toward its closed partner Hezbollah. Not only that now Tehran also having a fellow relationship with Erdogan’s Turkey. Russian and Chinese helped Iran to brought out from the Isolation that was created by American sanctions. Specifically, Putin’s intervention in Syria helped Iran and Hezbollah to win a war for Bashar-Ul-Assad in Syria, Even Trump administration is now going to accept Bashar-Ul-Assad as Syrian president until 2021 presidential election. American role from Iraq and Syria is near to end, although it is trying to bring up Kurdish movement as a new conflict in the region. But Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran are  keen to contain it.

UN Resolution to Null and Void Israel Actions in Palestine

On 30^th November 2017, there were six resolutions presented by Arab and some fellow countries against Israeli settlement in Palestine West Bank, East Jerusalem and Golan Hills accepted with 157 against 7, which has been declared Israeli action ‘null and void’. This resolution was also having the unanimous support of European Union, United Kingdom, Russia, and China. Israel and America just got 5 other votes against the resolution.

Conclusion

After taking a short review of the world and a brief review of middle east current circumstances, The American distress over its loses is obviously understandable. 

Trump stance over Jerusalem

In such unfavorable circumstances, why Trump administration accepted Jerusalem as a capital of Israel? Was that as usual Trump Idiotic move or US deep state selected Trump’s hand to play a bluff in middle east? But bluff never turns game into the favor of loser.

In a conclusion, it looks American desperate move to destabilize middle east so that it can develop a favorable condition and American make a comeback in middle east, but in the reality, American has been lost its “arbitrator” or “mediator” role forever in Israel-Palestine conflict, so this is completely lost.

Although Tillerson tried a damage control by saying …

“It’s not going to be anything that happens right away,” Mr. Tillerson added, “Probably no earlier than three years out, and that’s pretty ambitious.”

But this is not recoverable…

Israel plan of Jerusalem, Is that best time?

To understand that, better to take an overview of recent past;

• Lebanon 2006: when Hezbollah defeated Israel and got back south Lebanon land, that was an unbalanced war when Israel was in best position than Hezbollah in all manner, American and NATO have been occupied Iraq in 2003. that was difficult for Iran to provide supply Hezbollah against Israel via Syria due to American control over Iraq. IDF (Israel Defense Force) had full Air support, but Israel lost the war.
• Gaza 2014: American-Israel plan to split between the triangle of Hezbollah-Hamas-Bashar has been succeeded with help of Qatar, Bashar and Hezbollah badly engaged in war with Syrian opposition forces, Damascus was a hot battleground. That was the best time for Israel to took over Gaza against Hamas, Israel tried to take full advantage of that and made the strongest strike over Gaza. Isolated it from surroundings and almost made impossible to supply any kind of aid to it. Turkish Freedom Flotilla was standing few miles away from Gaza but could never be reached there. That was time Hezbollah and Iran revived their relationship with Hamas despite all dispute with it and continue aiding Hamas in Gaza with secret tunnels, so that saved Gaza. Israel, at last, came under a ten-year ceasefire agreement with Hamas.

The events concluded that it was very hard for Israel to continue its plan in Palestine when Israel had a favorite strategic condition to execute it, then how Israel can execute it now with the most unfavorable strategic condition than past? When Hezbollah, Iran, and Basher are in celebration of their win and Hamas once again is in patch up with an old alliance.

Consequently, this is in best favor of Israel to continue its ten-year ceasefire agreement with Hamas instead of starting “Jerusalem adventure” and wait for favorite time.